Munguia Will Upset Alvarez: Keys To Victory And Prediction
By Jacob Rodriguez
Photo Credit: DAZN Boxing Instagram Account
This Saturday night live from the T-Mobile arena in Las Vegas, Saul Canelo Alvarez, 33, from Guadalajara, Jalisco, Mexico, and Jamie Munguia, 27, from Tijuana, Baja California, Mexico will clash for the undisputed super middleweight championship of the world.
When two Mexican boxers square off in a high-stakes fight like this one, it almost always turns into an all-out fistic war of attrition.
Each fighter must be their best version to be victorious. For Jaime Munguia, this is the fight he has been training for his whole life. Will the young challenger dethrone Mexico's boxing king? Or will Alvarez once again prove why he is considered the face of boxing and the pride of Mexican boxing?
I've outlined what each fighter must do to best his rival, followed by my prediction for this showdown in Las Vegas.
Jaime Munguia (43-0, 34 KOs):
Strengths:
Munguia has an advantage in height and reach over his rival, Canelo Alvarez. He is a high-volume puncher who feels comfortable pressing the action and moving his opponent backward. Jaime hits hard and throws many combinations. He knows how to attack the body and has a sneaky uppercut that catches opponents trying to avoid the previous barrage of punches.
Weaknesses:
Munguia doesn't have a diverse defense plan. The Baja Cali native doesn't mind taking some shots to land his own. His forward style of boxing leaves him vulnerable to counterattacks, and Canelo Alvarez is an effective counterpuncher. His take-some-to-give-some fighting style had him in trouble on several occasions during his fight against Sergiy Derevyanchenko. Derevyanchenko hurt Munguia often throughout the fight.
Photo Credit: Jaime Munguia’s Instagram Account
Keys to Victory:
Jaime Munguia is the taller fighter and must fight like one. The challenger must establish his jab early. As tempting as it may be to engage in an all-out shootout with Canelo, Jamie must shake off the urge to brawl and keep Canelo at the end of his punches like Dmitry Bivol did against Alvarez.
However, I know that's different from Munguia’s style of fighting. So, if he is going to trade punches with Canelo, he must do so in spurts. Munguia must fire off his combinations and break away before Canelo can fire off his counterattack. Additionally, I have been screaming for opponents to attack Canelo's body to slow him down. The body attack will slow Canelo down and not allow him to lunge his attacks and move in angles like he used to.
Saul “Canelo” Alvarez (60-2, 39 KOs):
Strengths:
Canelo is a well-rounded boxer who is defensively and offensively sound. When Canelo is fighting well, he is hard to beat. He is an excellent counterpuncher who quickly breaks into opponents’ guard. Before his rival knows it, Canelo is in his face, banging away with punishing hooks to the body and the head, leaving his opponents dazed and confused. Canelo has excellent footwork and knows how to move in angles.
Weaknesses:
Canelo used to be more swift on his feet than he is. The longtime Mexican champion has been lunging with his signature left hook more frequently than he used to. Like a finely choreographed dancer, the Canelo of yesteryears would attack his opponents in versed angles while jabbing and varying his head movement. That isn't the case anymore, and Canelo has been moving straight forward on his opponents with a high guard. Additionally, Canelo has resulted in retreating straight back to avoid punches. The high guard leaves him vulnerable to body punches from his opponent, and the champion's chin gets hit more since he’s adopted this fighting style.
Photo Credit: Canelo Alvarez Instagram Account
Keys to victory:
Canelo Alvarez needs to do what he does best against Jaime Munguia: use Munguia’s aggressive attacks against him. Saul must counterpunch effectively against Munguia. Jaime has a long torso, which is prime picking for Canelo's left hook to the body. This will slow down the younger challenger, bring his hands down, and allow Canelo to land cleaner punches to Munguia’s head.
Photo Credit: Jaime Munguia’s Instagram Account
Prediction:
It's Cinco de Mayo weekend, and two Mexicans are fighting for the undisputed super middleweight world championship in Las Vegas. The feel-out rounds won't last long, and I expect this to be an exciting battle by the end of the fourth round. Expect Jaime to be first on the attack. Youth is on his side, and the challenger will try to exploit the champion’s diminished speed and footwork early. In these early rounds, Canelo will be timing the young challenger and trying to find gaps in Munguia’s weak defense.
The pride of Guadalajara will land hard shots, and Jaime's chin will be tested. However, Canelo's punches don't have the same pop as they used to. Although Canelo still has enough power to sting and probably hurt Mungia at times, I expect the challenger to recover like he did against Sergiy Derevyanchenko.
Canelo’s experience and far superior boxing IQ should give him the edge over the younger, overzealous fighting style of Munguia. However, Canelo’s last best performance was against Caleb Plant. That was three years ago.
I won't hold the loss against Bivol against Alvarez. He dared to be great, but the Russian was too big and strong for the smaller Alvarez. Golovkin was a shell of himself in the third fight against his Mexican rival. His domination of John Ryder was expected, and Canelo should've knocked him out, but he didn't. And his win against Jermell Charlo isn't something to boast about. Canelo was the bigger fighter. Even though Charlo is an excellent fighter, that night, he came to collect a paycheck and not to fight.
Canelo has been a professional fighter for nearly twenty years and has fought some tough battles. Although he is only thirty-three years old, he's an old thirty-three as it pertains to boxing. The Mexican champion is slower and slower on his feet than he used to be. Mungia’s overwhelming attack will be too much for Canelo to shake off.
I am going to cut against the grain of popular opinion. Barring a knockout punch by Canelo, I pick Jaime Mungia to upset Canelo with a split-decision win. Alvarez will have his moments and will hurt Muniga a time or two. However, Munguia will weather the storm and bring the fight to Canelo. Munguia’s abundant combinations and forward fighting style will give him the edge in close rounds.